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Middlesex County, Virginia

Natural disaster risk, federal disaster history and flood insurance facts.

Very Low overall risk
71st of 133highest risk in Virginia
$6Mexpected losses a year
22federal declarations
1 in 25homes with flood insurance
Photo: CC0

Middlesex County, Virginia has a very low overall risk from natural hazards in FEMA's National Risk Index. Its risk score is lower than 76% of US counties. It ranks 71st of 133 counties in Virginia. The costliest hazards here are hurricanes, inland flooding and drought. FEMA estimates about $5.9 million a year in expected losses, or roughly $559 per resident. Since 1972 it has been included in 22 federal disaster or emergency declarations for natural events (14 major disasters). The most recent was in January 2026 (severe winter storm). About 1 in 25 homes here carry federal flood insurance (291 policies). Since 1978, federal flood insurance has paid about $3.2 million on 234 claims here, including $1.7 million for floods in 2003.

FEMA National Risk Index December 2025; OpenFEMA declarations to Nov 6, 2026; NFIP records. Updated November 6, 2026.

Top risks in Middlesex County

Hurricane

Moderate
$3 million a yearExpected losses. Damaging events about once every 6 years.
  • Know your evacuation zone and route before June 1.
  • Ask about roof age, shutters and the separate wind or hurricane deductible on your home policy.
$1.1 million a yearExpected losses. Damaging events about once every 3 years.
  • Check the FEMA flood map for your address, and ask the seller or landlord about past flooding.
  • Price a flood policy now. Most new federal policies take 30 days to start.

Drought

Moderate
$606,143 a yearExpected losses. Damaging events about 3 times a year.
  • Check local water restrictions.
  • Choose drought-tolerant plants.
HazardRatingScoreExpected loss a year
HurricaneModerate85.5
$3M
Inland floodingVery Low11.3
$1M
DroughtModerate78.2
$606K
Coastal floodingLow58.0
$287K
Strong windLow37.4
$276K
TornadoVery Low23.2
$228K
Cold waveVery Low20.1
$163K
EarthquakeVery Low36.9
$91K
Heat waveVery Low28.3
$89K
Ice stormLow44.3
$48K
HailVery Low15.4
$38K
LightningVery Low15.3
$38K
WildfireVery Low31.4
$11K
Winter weatherVery Low11.1
$6K
LandslideVery Low27.7
$185

Scores are percentiles: a score of 90 means higher risk than about 90% of US counties for that hazard. Hazards FEMA does not rate here are left out. Social vulnerability is very high and community resilience is relatively high in FEMA's measures.

Federal disaster history

Recent disasters nationwide ›

Declarations by decade

Federal declarations for natural events that included Middlesex County. 2020s bar runs to November 2026.

By type

Hurricane11
Snowstorm3
Flood2
Severe Storm2
Freezing1
Drought1

Most recent

Jan 23, 2026Severe Winter StormEmergency
May 10, 2021Severe Winter StormsMajor disaster
Dec 18, 2018Tropical Storm MichaelMajor disaster
Sep 11, 2018Hurricane FlorenceEmergency
Nov 26, 2012Hurricane SandyMajor disaster
Oct 29, 2012Hurricane SandyEmergency
Sep 3, 2011Hurricane IreneMajor disaster
Aug 26, 2011Hurricane IreneEmergency
Sep 22, 2006Tropical Depression Ernesto, Severe Storms and FloodingMajor disaster
Sep 12, 2005Hurricane Katrina EvacuationEmergency
Show all 22
Sep 18, 2003Hurricane IsabelMajor disaster
Feb 28, 2000Severe Winter StormsMajor disaster
Sep 18, 1999Hurricane Floyd Major Disaster DeclarationsMajor disaster
Sep 16, 1999Hurricane Floyd Emergency DeclarationsEmergency
Sep 6, 1996Hurricane Fran and Associated Severe Storm CondMajor disaster
Jan 13, 1996Blizzard of 96 (Severe Snow Storm)Major disaster
Mar 10, 1994Severe Ice Storms, FloodingMajor disaster
Mar 25, 1993Severe Winter StormEmergency
Nov 9, 1985Severe Storms & FloodingMajor disaster
Jul 23, 1977DroughtEmergency
Jan 26, 1977Ice ConditionsMajor disaster
Jun 23, 1972Tropical Storm AgnesMajor disaster

Virginia also had 6 statewide declarations that did not name single counties.

Storm history since 1976

Tornado risk by county ›

The National Weather Service has logged 172 storm reports in Middlesex County since 1976, with 0 deaths and 5 injuries and about $7.6 million in reported damage. The strongest on record here was an F3 tornado on August 6, 1993 near Urbanna.

11tornadoes
18hail reports, largest 1.75 inches
89damaging thunderstorm winds
10floods and flash floods

Strongest tornadoes

DateStrengthNearHurt / killed
Aug 6, 1993F3Urbanna0 / 0
Apr 16, 2011EF2Ruark0 / 0
May 11, 1981F2–0 / 0
Feb 24, 2016EF1Warner0 / 0
Apr 16, 2011EF1Samos0 / 0

Most damaging storms

DateTypeNearDamage
Apr 16, 2011TornadoRuark$6M
Feb 24, 2016TornadoWarner$677K
Jul 18, 1996LightningDeltaville$200K
May 22, 2014Thunderstorm WindSaluda Hummel Arpt$200K
Apr 16, 2011TornadoSamos$100K
Aug 6, 1993TornadoUrbanna$50K

Source: NOAA Storm Events Database, county-based reports through Jul 18, 2026. Tornado records start in 1950, hail and wind in 1955, and floods and other storm types in 1996, so older decades undercount. Damage is in dollars of the year it happened and is often an estimate. Winter storms, heat and hurricanes are logged by forecast zone, not county, so they are not counted here.

Hurricanes and tropical storms

Hurricane risk by county ›

Since 1856, 6 hurricanes and 30 tropical storms have passed within 65 miles of the center of Middlesex County, 15 of them since 1950. The strongest was an unnamed hurricane in 1878, with top winds near 100 mph about 63 miles away.

6hurricanes
0major hurricanes (Category 3+)
30tropical storms
2021most recent: Elsa

Strongest storms nearby

DateStormStrengthClosest
Oct 23, 1878UnnamedCategory 2, 100 mph63 mi
Aug 13, 1955ConnieCategory 1, 80 mph62 mi
Aug 23, 1933UnnamedCategory 1, 80 mph61 mi
Sep 16, 1999FloydCategory 1, 75 mph59 mi
Oct 10, 1894UnnamedCategory 1, 75 mph58 mi
Sep 17, 1876UnnamedCategory 1, 75 mph55 mi

Most recent storms

DateStormStrengthClosest
Jul 9, 2021ElsaTropical storm, 55 mph53 mi
Aug 4, 2020IsaiasTropical storm, 70 mph36 mi
Sep 6, 2008HannaTropical storm, 50 mph50 mi
Aug 30, 2004GastonTropical storm, 40 mph28 mi
Sep 16, 1999FloydCategory 1, 75 mph59 mi
Jul 13, 1996BerthaTropical storm, 70 mph48 mi

Source: NOAA National Hurricane Center best-track records (HURDAT2), 1851 to 2025 for the Atlantic and 1949 to 2025 for the eastern Pacific. A storm counts if its track passed within 65 miles of the county's center while it was a tropical storm or hurricane. Strength is the storm's top sustained wind at that point, not the wind measured in the county. Older storms over the open sea were sometimes missed.

Flood insurance in Middlesex County

Check your address flood zone ›
4%of homes have federal flood insurance (291 policies)
41.1%of homes in mapped high-risk flood zones are insured
$3.2 millionpaid on 234 flood claims since 1978
2003costliest year, with $1.7 million paid

National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) records only; private flood policies are not included. Home counts as of Aug 3, 2026. Since 2021 NFIP prices each home separately under Risk Rating 2.0, so your price depends on the building, not the county. Ask an agent for a quote.

Homes in Middlesex County

$352,200median home value (Virginia $383,700, US $332,700)
1982median year homes were built (Virginia 1984, US 1980)
47%of homes built before 1980, before many modern wind, quake and flood building rules
8.5%of homes are mobile homes, which are the least safe in tornadoes and high winds

Older homes and mobile homes usually suffer more damage in storms, floods and earthquakes, and can cost more to insure. If you are buying, ask about roof age, foundation bolting and any retrofits. Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2020 to 2024 5-year estimates; 7,153 housing units.

Compare in Virginia

All 133 ›
Largest countiesOverall riskTop hazard
Fairfax CountyHighInland flooding
Prince William CountyModerateInland flooding
Virginia Beach CityLowHurricane
Loudoun CountyLowInland flooding
Chesterfield CountyModerateInland flooding
Henrico CountyModerateInland flooding
Chesapeake CityLowInland flooding
Arlington CountyLowInland flooding

Neighboring counties

CountyOverall riskDeclarations
Gloucester CountyVery Low16
Accomack CountyModerate18
Northampton CountyLow20
Lancaster CountyVery Low23
Essex CountyVery Low25
Richmond CountyVery Low22
Mathews CountyVery Low18
King and Queen CountyVery Low23

Common questions about Middlesex County

What is the biggest natural hazard in Middlesex County?

Hurricane has the highest expected yearly losses in Middlesex County, about $3 million a year in FEMA's estimate. Inland flooding is second at $1.1 million.

How many federal disasters has Middlesex County had?

Middlesex County has been included in 22 federal disaster or emergency declarations for natural events since 1972, including 14 major disasters. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm in January 2026.

Is Middlesex County a high-risk place to live?

Its overall rating is Very Low, 71st highest of 133 in Virginia. A county rating covers the whole area. Risk at one address can be much higher or lower, so check the FEMA flood map and ask about the home's history.

Do I need flood insurance in Middlesex County?

Standard home insurance does not cover flooding. About 1 in 25 homes in Middlesex County has federal flood insurance. Lenders require it in mapped high-risk zones, but many flood claims come from outside those zones.

How many tornadoes has Middlesex County had?

NOAA records list 11 tornadoes in Middlesex County since 1950. The strongest was an F3 tornado on August 6, 1993 near Urbanna. The weather service has also logged 18 hail reports and 10 floods here.

How many hurricanes have hit Middlesex County?

NOAA's hurricane records show 6 hurricanes and 30 tropical storms passing within 65 miles of the center of Middlesex County. The strongest was an unnamed hurricane in 1878, with winds near 100 mph.

Sources: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025), OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries, and NFIP policy and claims data. Hazard Compass is independent and not affiliated with FEMA. These figures describe the whole county, not a single property, and are not insurance or safety advice. Report a problem.