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Lancaster County, Virginia

Natural disaster risk, federal disaster history and flood insurance facts.

Very Low overall risk
60th of 133highest risk in Virginia
$7Mexpected losses a year
23federal declarations
1 in 16homes with flood insurance
Photo: CC0

Lancaster County, Virginia has a very low overall risk from natural hazards in FEMA's National Risk Index. Its risk score is lower than 68% of US counties. It ranks 60th of 133 counties in Virginia. The costliest hazards here are hurricanes, drought and inland flooding. FEMA estimates about $7.5 million a year in expected losses, or roughly $686 per resident. Since 1972 it has been included in 23 federal disaster or emergency declarations for natural events (15 major disasters). The most recent was in January 2026 (severe winter storm). About 1 in 16 homes here carry federal flood insurance (446 policies). Since 1978, federal flood insurance has paid about $5.8 million on 396 claims here, including $2.8 million for floods in 2003.

FEMA National Risk Index December 2025; OpenFEMA declarations to Nov 6, 2026; NFIP records. Updated November 6, 2026.

Top risks in Lancaster County

Hurricane

Moderate
$2.9 million a yearExpected losses. Damaging events about once every 6 years.
  • Know your evacuation zone and route before June 1.
  • Ask about roof age, shutters and the separate wind or hurricane deductible on your home policy.
$2 million a yearExpected losses. Damaging events about 4 times a year.
  • Check local water restrictions.
  • Choose drought-tolerant plants.
$1.2 million a yearExpected losses. Damaging events about once every 3 years.
  • Check the FEMA flood map for your address, and ask the seller or landlord about past flooding.
  • Price a flood policy now. Most new federal policies take 30 days to start.
HazardRatingScoreExpected loss a year
HurricaneModerate85.5
$3M
DroughtHigh95.6
$2M
Inland floodingVery Low13.7
$1M
Coastal floodingModerate60.6
$394K
Cold waveLow24.5
$224K
Strong windLow31.6
$221K
TornadoVery Low21.4
$191K
EarthquakeVery Low42.9
$132K
Heat waveVery Low29.8
$96K
Ice stormLow45.9
$51K
LightningVery Low11.7
$28K
HailVery Low10.3
$24K
Winter weatherVery Low10.9
$6K
WildfireVery Low18.4
$5K
LandslideVery Low25.1
$139

Scores are percentiles: a score of 90 means higher risk than about 90% of US counties for that hazard. Hazards FEMA does not rate here are left out. Social vulnerability is very high and community resilience is very high in FEMA's measures.

Federal disaster history

Recent disasters nationwide ›

Declarations by decade

Federal declarations for natural events that included Lancaster County. 2020s bar runs to November 2026.

By type

Hurricane12
Snowstorm3
Flood2
Severe Storm2
Freezing1
Drought1

Most recent

Jan 23, 2026Severe Winter StormEmergency
May 10, 2021Severe Winter StormsMajor disaster
Dec 18, 2018Tropical Storm MichaelMajor disaster
Oct 15, 2018Hurricane FlorenceMajor disaster
Sep 11, 2018Hurricane FlorenceEmergency
Nov 26, 2012Hurricane SandyMajor disaster
Oct 29, 2012Hurricane SandyEmergency
Sep 3, 2011Hurricane IreneMajor disaster
Aug 26, 2011Hurricane IreneEmergency
Sep 22, 2006Tropical Depression Ernesto, Severe Storms and FloodingMajor disaster
Show all 23
Sep 12, 2005Hurricane Katrina EvacuationEmergency
Sep 18, 2003Hurricane IsabelMajor disaster
Feb 28, 2000Severe Winter StormsMajor disaster
Sep 18, 1999Hurricane Floyd Major Disaster DeclarationsMajor disaster
Sep 16, 1999Hurricane Floyd Emergency DeclarationsEmergency
Sep 6, 1996Hurricane Fran and Associated Severe Storm CondMajor disaster
Jan 13, 1996Blizzard of 96 (Severe Snow Storm)Major disaster
Mar 10, 1994Severe Ice Storms, FloodingMajor disaster
Mar 25, 1993Severe Winter StormEmergency
Nov 9, 1985Severe Storms & FloodingMajor disaster
Jul 23, 1977DroughtEmergency
Jan 26, 1977Ice ConditionsMajor disaster
Jun 23, 1972Tropical Storm AgnesMajor disaster

Virginia also had 6 statewide declarations that did not name single counties.

Storm history since 1955

Tornado risk by county ›

The National Weather Service has logged 176 storm reports in Lancaster County since 1955, with 0 deaths and 8 injuries and about $10 million in reported damage. The strongest on record here was an EF2 tornado on August 4, 2020 near Palmer.

10tornadoes
15hail reports, largest 1.75 inches
82damaging thunderstorm winds
31floods and flash floods

Strongest tornadoes

DateStrengthNearHurt / killed
Aug 4, 2020EF2Palmer5 / 0
May 10, 1990F1–0 / 0
Feb 24, 2016EF1Morattico0 / 0
Apr 6, 2017EF1Irvington0 / 0
May 25, 2004F1White Stone0 / 0

Most damaging storms

DateTypeNearDamage
Aug 4, 2020TornadoPalmer$3M
May 10, 1990Tornado–$3M
Jul 12, 2009Thunderstorm WindMorattico$1M
Jul 12, 2009Thunderstorm WindMerry Pt$1M
Jul 12, 2009Thunderstorm WindRegina$1M
Aug 6, 1993TornadoWhite Stone$500K

Source: NOAA Storm Events Database, county-based reports through Jul 21, 2026. Tornado records start in 1950, hail and wind in 1955, and floods and other storm types in 1996, so older decades undercount. Damage is in dollars of the year it happened and is often an estimate. Winter storms, heat and hurricanes are logged by forecast zone, not county, so they are not counted here.

Hurricanes and tropical storms

Hurricane risk by county ›

Since 1856, 8 hurricanes and 30 tropical storms have passed within 65 miles of the center of Lancaster County, 16 of them since 1950. The strongest was an unnamed hurricane in 1879, with top winds near 105 mph about 62 miles away.

8hurricanes
0major hurricanes (Category 3+)
30tropical storms
2021most recent: Elsa

Strongest storms nearby

DateStormStrengthClosest
Aug 18, 1879UnnamedCategory 2, 105 mph62 mi
Oct 23, 1878UnnamedCategory 2, 100 mph45 mi
Aug 13, 1955ConnieCategory 1, 80 mph51 mi
Aug 23, 1933UnnamedCategory 1, 80 mph51 mi
Oct 10, 1894UnnamedCategory 1, 75 mph64 mi
Aug 28, 2011IreneCategory 1, 75 mph64 mi

Most recent storms

DateStormStrengthClosest
Jul 9, 2021ElsaTropical storm, 55 mph44 mi
Aug 4, 2020IsaiasTropical storm, 70 mph46 mi
Aug 28, 2011IreneCategory 1, 75 mph64 mi
Sep 6, 2008HannaTropical storm, 50 mph59 mi
Aug 30, 2004GastonTropical storm, 40 mph36 mi
Sep 16, 1999FloydCategory 1, 75 mph62 mi

Source: NOAA National Hurricane Center best-track records (HURDAT2), 1851 to 2025 for the Atlantic and 1949 to 2025 for the eastern Pacific. A storm counts if its track passed within 65 miles of the county's center while it was a tropical storm or hurricane. Strength is the storm's top sustained wind at that point, not the wind measured in the county. Older storms over the open sea were sometimes missed.

Flood insurance in Lancaster County

Check your address flood zone ›
6.1%of homes have federal flood insurance (446 policies)
56%of homes in mapped high-risk flood zones are insured
$5.8 millionpaid on 396 flood claims since 1978
2003costliest year, with $2.8 million paid

National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) records only; private flood policies are not included. Home counts as of Aug 3, 2026. Since 2021 NFIP prices each home separately under Risk Rating 2.0, so your price depends on the building, not the county. Ask an agent for a quote.

Homes in Lancaster County

$327,000median home value (Virginia $383,700, US $332,700)
1982median year homes were built (Virginia 1984, US 1980)
46%of homes built before 1980, before many modern wind, quake and flood building rules
4.1%of homes are mobile homes, which are the least safe in tornadoes and high winds

Older homes and mobile homes usually suffer more damage in storms, floods and earthquakes, and can cost more to insure. If you are buying, ask about roof age, foundation bolting and any retrofits. Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2020 to 2024 5-year estimates; 7,496 housing units.

Compare in Virginia

All 133 ›
Largest countiesOverall riskTop hazard
Fairfax CountyHighInland flooding
Prince William CountyModerateInland flooding
Virginia Beach CityLowHurricane
Loudoun CountyLowInland flooding
Chesterfield CountyModerateInland flooding
Henrico CountyModerateInland flooding
Chesapeake CityLowInland flooding
Arlington CountyLowInland flooding

Neighboring counties

CountyOverall riskDeclarations
Accomack CountyModerate18
Northumberland CountyVery Low23
Middlesex CountyVery Low22
Essex CountyVery Low25
Richmond CountyVery Low22

Common questions about Lancaster County

What is the biggest natural hazard in Lancaster County?

Hurricane has the highest expected yearly losses in Lancaster County, about $2.9 million a year in FEMA's estimate. Drought is second at $2 million.

How many federal disasters has Lancaster County had?

Lancaster County has been included in 23 federal disaster or emergency declarations for natural events since 1972, including 15 major disasters. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm in January 2026.

Is Lancaster County a high-risk place to live?

Its overall rating is Very Low, 60th highest of 133 in Virginia. A county rating covers the whole area. Risk at one address can be much higher or lower, so check the FEMA flood map and ask about the home's history.

Do I need flood insurance in Lancaster County?

Standard home insurance does not cover flooding. About 1 in 16 homes in Lancaster County has federal flood insurance. Lenders require it in mapped high-risk zones, but many flood claims come from outside those zones.

How many tornadoes has Lancaster County had?

NOAA records list 10 tornadoes in Lancaster County since 1950. The strongest was an EF2 tornado on August 4, 2020 near Palmer. The weather service has also logged 15 hail reports and 31 floods here.

How many hurricanes have hit Lancaster County?

NOAA's hurricane records show 8 hurricanes and 30 tropical storms passing within 65 miles of the center of Lancaster County. The strongest was an unnamed hurricane in 1879, with winds near 105 mph.

Sources: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025), OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries, and NFIP policy and claims data. Hazard Compass is independent and not affiliated with FEMA. These figures describe the whole county, not a single property, and are not insurance or safety advice. Report a problem.