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Warren County, Virginia

Natural disaster risk, federal disaster history and flood insurance facts.

Very Low overall risk
63rd of 133highest risk in Virginia
$13Mexpected losses a year
21federal declarations
1 in 111homes with flood insurance
Photo: U.S. Geological Survey, public domain

Warren County, Virginia has a very low overall risk from natural hazards in FEMA's National Risk Index. Its risk score is lower than 68% of US counties. It ranks 63rd of 133 counties in Virginia. The costliest hazards here are inland flooding, strong wind and tornadoes. FEMA estimates about $13 million a year in expected losses, or roughly $319 per resident. Since 1972 it has been included in 21 federal disaster or emergency declarations for natural events (14 major disasters). The most recent was in January 2026 (severe winter storm). Fewer than 1 in 100 homes here carry federal flood insurance (136 policies). Since 1978, federal flood insurance has paid about $6.8 million on 370 claims here, including $4.8 million for floods in 1996.

FEMA National Risk Index December 2025; OpenFEMA declarations to Nov 6, 2026; NFIP records. Updated November 6, 2026.

Top risks in Warren County

$10 million a yearExpected losses. Damaging events about 2 times a year.
  • Check the FEMA flood map for your address, and ask the seller or landlord about past flooding.
  • Price a flood policy now. Most new federal policies take 30 days to start.
$593,921 a yearExpected losses. Damaging events about 6 times a year.
  • Secure outdoor furniture and trash bins before storms.
  • Have trees near the house checked.

Tornado

Very Low
$450,802 a yearExpected losses. Damaging events about once every 9 years.
  • Pick a shelter spot: a basement, or an inside room on the lowest floor with no windows.
  • Turn on emergency alerts on your phone and keep a weather radio.
HazardRatingScoreExpected loss a year
Inland floodingLow55.7
$10M
Strong windLow44.4
$594K
TornadoVery Low24.7
$451K
Heat waveLow48.6
$446K
DroughtLow56.0
$279K
LightningLow47.6
$272K
EarthquakeVery Low45.2
$265K
HurricaneLow59.9
$263K
HailLow36.6
$200K
Cold waveVery Low8.7
$78K
Winter weatherLow42.9
$65K
WildfireVery Low36.4
$26K
LandslideLow80.5
$21K
Ice stormVery Low10.5
$7K
AvalancheVery Low49.6
$672

Scores are percentiles: a score of 90 means higher risk than about 90% of US counties for that hazard. Hazards FEMA does not rate here are left out. Social vulnerability is very low and community resilience is relatively moderate in FEMA's measures.

Federal disaster history

Recent disasters nationwide ›

Declarations by decade

Federal declarations for natural events that included Warren County. 2020s bar runs to November 2026.

By type

Hurricane6
Flood4
Snowstorm4
Severe Storm4
Drought1
Fire1

Most recent

Jan 23, 2026Severe Winter StormEmergency
Sep 11, 2018Hurricane FlorenceEmergency
Mar 7, 2016Severe Winter Storm and SnowstormMajor disaster
Nov 26, 2012Hurricane SandyMajor disaster
Oct 29, 2012Hurricane SandyEmergency
Jul 27, 2012Severe Storms and Straight-Line WindsMajor disaster
Feb 20, 2011Smith FireFire management
Apr 27, 2010Severe Winter Storms and SnowstormsMajor disaster
Sep 12, 2005Hurricane Katrina EvacuationEmergency
Sep 18, 2003Hurricane IsabelMajor disaster
Show all 21
Mar 27, 2003Severe Winter Storm, Record/Near Record Snowfall, Heavy Rain,Floodind, and MudslideMajor disaster
Feb 28, 2000Severe Winter StormsMajor disaster
Sep 6, 1996Hurricane Fran and Associated Severe Storm CondMajor disaster
Jan 27, 1996Flooding, High Winds, and Wind Driven RainMajor disaster
Jan 13, 1996Blizzard of 96 (Severe Snow Storm)Major disaster
Jul 1, 1995Severe Storms and FloodingMajor disaster
Mar 25, 1993Severe Winter StormEmergency
Nov 9, 1985Severe Storms & FloodingMajor disaster
Jul 23, 1977DroughtEmergency
Oct 10, 1972Severe Storms & FloodingMajor disaster
Jun 23, 1972Tropical Storm AgnesMajor disaster

Virginia also had 6 statewide declarations that did not name single counties.

Storm history since 1958

Tornado risk by county ›

The National Weather Service has logged 316 storm reports in Warren County since 1958, with 0 deaths and 3 injuries and about $9.7 million in reported damage. The strongest on record here was an F1 tornado on May 27, 2001 near Ashby.

3tornadoes
33hail reports, largest 2.75 inches
158damaging thunderstorm winds
103floods and flash floods

Strongest tornadoes

DateStrengthNearHurt / killed
May 27, 2001F1Ashby0 / 0
Jul 9, 1970F0–0 / 0
Sep 17, 2004F0Front Royal0 / 0

Most damaging storms

DateTypeNearDamage
Sep 6, 1996Flash FloodCountywide$7M
Jan 19, 1996Flash FloodAll$2M
Jul 25, 2023Thunderstorm WindBuckton$250K
Aug 3, 2002LightningCountywide$195K
May 27, 2001TornadoAshby$65K
Jun 27, 2006Flash FloodFront Royal$65K

Source: NOAA Storm Events Database, county-based reports through Jul 28, 2026. Tornado records start in 1950, hail and wind in 1955, and floods and other storm types in 1996, so older decades undercount. Damage is in dollars of the year it happened and is often an estimate. Winter storms, heat and hurricanes are logged by forecast zone, not county, so they are not counted here.

Hurricanes and tropical storms

Hurricane risk by county ›

Since 1876, 2 hurricanes and 10 tropical storms have passed within 65 miles of the center of Warren County, 4 of them since 1950. The strongest was an unnamed hurricane in 1878, with top winds near 95 mph about 64 miles away.

2hurricanes
0major hurricanes (Category 3+)
10tropical storms
2003most recent: Isabel

Strongest storms nearby

DateStormStrengthClosest
Oct 23, 1878UnnamedCategory 1, 95 mph64 mi
Oct 13, 1893UnnamedCategory 1, 80 mph57 mi
Sep 18, 1876UnnamedTropical storm, 65 mph46 mi
Aug 29, 1893UnnamedTropical storm, 65 mph55 mi
Aug 23, 1933UnnamedTropical storm, 65 mph56 mi
Sep 19, 2003IsabelTropical storm, 60 mph51 mi

Most recent storms

DateStormStrengthClosest
Sep 19, 2003IsabelTropical storm, 60 mph51 mi
Sep 6, 1979DavidTropical storm, 45 mph55 mi
Aug 18, 1955DianeTropical storm, 50 mph57 mi
Sep 1, 1952AbleTropical storm, 55 mph52 mi
Aug 29, 1949UnnamedTropical storm, 60 mph51 mi
Aug 23, 1933UnnamedTropical storm, 65 mph56 mi

Source: NOAA National Hurricane Center best-track records (HURDAT2), 1851 to 2025 for the Atlantic and 1949 to 2025 for the eastern Pacific. A storm counts if its track passed within 65 miles of the county's center while it was a tropical storm or hurricane. Strength is the storm's top sustained wind at that point, not the wind measured in the county. Older storms over the open sea were sometimes missed.

Flood insurance in Warren County

Check your address flood zone ›
0.9%of homes have federal flood insurance (136 policies)
17.3%of homes in mapped high-risk flood zones are insured
$6.8 millionpaid on 370 flood claims since 1978
1996costliest year, with $4.8 million paid

National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) records only; private flood policies are not included. Home counts as of Aug 3, 2026. Since 2021 NFIP prices each home separately under Risk Rating 2.0, so your price depends on the building, not the county. Ask an agent for a quote.

Homes in Warren County

$348,400median home value (Virginia $383,700, US $332,700)
1986median year homes were built (Virginia 1984, US 1980)
42%of homes built before 1980, before many modern wind, quake and flood building rules
1.2%of homes are mobile homes, which are the least safe in tornadoes and high winds

Older homes and mobile homes usually suffer more damage in storms, floods and earthquakes, and can cost more to insure. If you are buying, ask about roof age, foundation bolting and any retrofits. Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2020 to 2024 5-year estimates; 17,064 housing units.

Compare in Virginia

All 133 ›
Largest countiesOverall riskTop hazard
Fairfax CountyHighInland flooding
Prince William CountyModerateInland flooding
Virginia Beach CityLowHurricane
Loudoun CountyLowInland flooding
Chesterfield CountyModerateInland flooding
Henrico CountyModerateInland flooding
Chesapeake CityLowInland flooding
Arlington CountyLowInland flooding

Neighboring counties

CountyOverall riskDeclarations
Frederick CountyLow17
Fauquier CountyLow19
Shenandoah CountyLow22
Page CountyVery Low22
Clarke CountyVery Low18
Rappahannock CountyVery Low23

Common questions about Warren County

What is the biggest natural hazard in Warren County?

Inland flooding has the highest expected yearly losses in Warren County, about $10 million a year in FEMA's estimate. Strong wind is second at $593,921.

How many federal disasters has Warren County had?

Warren County has been included in 21 federal disaster or emergency declarations for natural events since 1972, including 14 major disasters. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm in January 2026.

Is Warren County a high-risk place to live?

Its overall rating is Very Low, 63rd highest of 133 in Virginia. A county rating covers the whole area. Risk at one address can be much higher or lower, so check the FEMA flood map and ask about the home's history.

Do I need flood insurance in Warren County?

Standard home insurance does not cover flooding. About 1 in 111 homes in Warren County has federal flood insurance. Lenders require it in mapped high-risk zones, but many flood claims come from outside those zones.

How many tornadoes has Warren County had?

NOAA records list 3 tornadoes in Warren County since 1950. The strongest was an F1 tornado on May 27, 2001 near Ashby. The weather service has also logged 33 hail reports and 103 floods here.

How many hurricanes have hit Warren County?

NOAA's hurricane records show 2 hurricanes and 10 tropical storms passing within 65 miles of the center of Warren County. The strongest was an unnamed hurricane in 1878, with winds near 95 mph.

Sources: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025), OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries, and NFIP policy and claims data. Hazard Compass is independent and not affiliated with FEMA. These figures describe the whole county, not a single property, and are not insurance or safety advice. Report a problem.