Warren County, Virginia
Natural disaster risk, federal disaster history and flood insurance facts.
Warren County, Virginia has a very low overall risk from natural hazards in FEMA's National Risk Index. Its risk score is lower than 68% of US counties. It ranks 63rd of 133 counties in Virginia. The costliest hazards here are inland flooding, strong wind and tornadoes. FEMA estimates about $13 million a year in expected losses, or roughly $319 per resident. Since 1972 it has been included in 21 federal disaster or emergency declarations for natural events (14 major disasters). The most recent was in January 2026 (severe winter storm). Fewer than 1 in 100 homes here carry federal flood insurance (136 policies). Since 1978, federal flood insurance has paid about $6.8 million on 370 claims here, including $4.8 million for floods in 1996.
FEMA National Risk Index December 2025; OpenFEMA declarations to Nov 6, 2026; NFIP records. Updated November 6, 2026.
Top risks in Warren County
- Check the FEMA flood map for your address, and ask the seller or landlord about past flooding.
- Price a flood policy now. Most new federal policies take 30 days to start.
- Secure outdoor furniture and trash bins before storms.
- Have trees near the house checked.
- Pick a shelter spot: a basement, or an inside room on the lowest floor with no windows.
- Turn on emergency alerts on your phone and keep a weather radio.
All 18 hazards
What the ratings mean ›| Hazard | Rating | Score | Expected loss a year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inland flooding | 55.7 | $10M | ||
| Strong wind | 44.4 | $594K | ||
| Tornado | 24.7 | $451K | ||
| Heat wave | 48.6 | $446K | ||
| Drought | 56.0 | $279K | ||
| Lightning | 47.6 | $272K | ||
| Earthquake | 45.2 | $265K | ||
| Hurricane | 59.9 | $263K | ||
| Hail | 36.6 | $200K | ||
| Cold wave | 8.7 | $78K | ||
| Winter weather | 42.9 | $65K | ||
| Wildfire | 36.4 | $26K | ||
| Landslide | 80.5 | $21K | ||
| Ice storm | 10.5 | $7K | ||
| Avalanche | 49.6 | $672 |
Scores are percentiles: a score of 90 means higher risk than about 90% of US counties for that hazard. Hazards FEMA does not rate here are left out. Social vulnerability is very low and community resilience is relatively moderate in FEMA's measures.
Federal disaster history
Recent disasters nationwide ›Declarations by decade
Federal declarations for natural events that included Warren County. 2020s bar runs to November 2026.
By type
Most recent
Show all 21
Virginia also had 6 statewide declarations that did not name single counties.
Storm history since 1958
Tornado risk by county ›The National Weather Service has logged 316 storm reports in Warren County since 1958, with 0 deaths and 3 injuries and about $9.7 million in reported damage. The strongest on record here was an F1 tornado on May 27, 2001 near Ashby.
Strongest tornadoes
| Date | Strength | Near | Hurt / killed |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 27, 2001 | F1 | Ashby | 0 / 0 |
| Jul 9, 1970 | F0 | – | 0 / 0 |
| Sep 17, 2004 | F0 | Front Royal | 0 / 0 |
Most damaging storms
| Date | Type | Near | Damage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 1996 | Flash Flood | Countywide | $7M |
| Jan 19, 1996 | Flash Flood | All | $2M |
| Jul 25, 2023 | Thunderstorm Wind | Buckton | $250K |
| Aug 3, 2002 | Lightning | Countywide | $195K |
| May 27, 2001 | Tornado | Ashby | $65K |
| Jun 27, 2006 | Flash Flood | Front Royal | $65K |
Source: NOAA Storm Events Database, county-based reports through Jul 28, 2026. Tornado records start in 1950, hail and wind in 1955, and floods and other storm types in 1996, so older decades undercount. Damage is in dollars of the year it happened and is often an estimate. Winter storms, heat and hurricanes are logged by forecast zone, not county, so they are not counted here.
Hurricanes and tropical storms
Hurricane risk by county ›Since 1876, 2 hurricanes and 10 tropical storms have passed within 65 miles of the center of Warren County, 4 of them since 1950. The strongest was an unnamed hurricane in 1878, with top winds near 95 mph about 64 miles away.
Strongest storms nearby
| Date | Storm | Strength | Closest |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 1878 | Unnamed | Category 1, 95 mph | 64 mi |
| Oct 13, 1893 | Unnamed | Category 1, 80 mph | 57 mi |
| Sep 18, 1876 | Unnamed | Tropical storm, 65 mph | 46 mi |
| Aug 29, 1893 | Unnamed | Tropical storm, 65 mph | 55 mi |
| Aug 23, 1933 | Unnamed | Tropical storm, 65 mph | 56 mi |
| Sep 19, 2003 | Isabel | Tropical storm, 60 mph | 51 mi |
Most recent storms
| Date | Storm | Strength | Closest |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2003 | Isabel | Tropical storm, 60 mph | 51 mi |
| Sep 6, 1979 | David | Tropical storm, 45 mph | 55 mi |
| Aug 18, 1955 | Diane | Tropical storm, 50 mph | 57 mi |
| Sep 1, 1952 | Able | Tropical storm, 55 mph | 52 mi |
| Aug 29, 1949 | Unnamed | Tropical storm, 60 mph | 51 mi |
| Aug 23, 1933 | Unnamed | Tropical storm, 65 mph | 56 mi |
Source: NOAA National Hurricane Center best-track records (HURDAT2), 1851 to 2025 for the Atlantic and 1949 to 2025 for the eastern Pacific. A storm counts if its track passed within 65 miles of the county's center while it was a tropical storm or hurricane. Strength is the storm's top sustained wind at that point, not the wind measured in the county. Older storms over the open sea were sometimes missed.
Flood insurance in Warren County
Check your address flood zone ›National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) records only; private flood policies are not included. Home counts as of Aug 3, 2026. Since 2021 NFIP prices each home separately under Risk Rating 2.0, so your price depends on the building, not the county. Ask an agent for a quote.
Homes in Warren County
Older homes and mobile homes usually suffer more damage in storms, floods and earthquakes, and can cost more to insure. If you are buying, ask about roof age, foundation bolting and any retrofits. Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2020 to 2024 5-year estimates; 17,064 housing units.
Compare in Virginia
All 133 ›| Largest counties | Overall risk | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|
| Fairfax County | Inland flooding | |
| Prince William County | Inland flooding | |
| Virginia Beach City | Hurricane | |
| Loudoun County | Inland flooding | |
| Chesterfield County | Inland flooding | |
| Henrico County | Inland flooding | |
| Chesapeake City | Inland flooding | |
| Arlington County | Inland flooding |
Neighboring counties
| County | Overall risk | Declarations |
|---|---|---|
| Frederick County | 17 | |
| Fauquier County | 19 | |
| Shenandoah County | 22 | |
| Page County | 22 | |
| Clarke County | 18 | |
| Rappahannock County | 23 |
Common questions about Warren County
What is the biggest natural hazard in Warren County?
Inland flooding has the highest expected yearly losses in Warren County, about $10 million a year in FEMA's estimate. Strong wind is second at $593,921.
How many federal disasters has Warren County had?
Warren County has been included in 21 federal disaster or emergency declarations for natural events since 1972, including 14 major disasters. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm in January 2026.
Is Warren County a high-risk place to live?
Its overall rating is Very Low, 63rd highest of 133 in Virginia. A county rating covers the whole area. Risk at one address can be much higher or lower, so check the FEMA flood map and ask about the home's history.
Do I need flood insurance in Warren County?
Standard home insurance does not cover flooding. About 1 in 111 homes in Warren County has federal flood insurance. Lenders require it in mapped high-risk zones, but many flood claims come from outside those zones.
How many tornadoes has Warren County had?
NOAA records list 3 tornadoes in Warren County since 1950. The strongest was an F1 tornado on May 27, 2001 near Ashby. The weather service has also logged 33 hail reports and 103 floods here.
How many hurricanes have hit Warren County?
NOAA's hurricane records show 2 hurricanes and 10 tropical storms passing within 65 miles of the center of Warren County. The strongest was an unnamed hurricane in 1878, with winds near 95 mph.
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025), OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries, and NFIP policy and claims data. Hazard Compass is independent and not affiliated with FEMA. These figures describe the whole county, not a single property, and are not insurance or safety advice. Report a problem.