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Carlton County, Minnesota

Natural disaster risk, federal disaster history and flood insurance facts.

Relatively Low overall risk
16th of 87highest risk in Minnesota
$32Mexpected losses a year
8federal declarations
1 in 500homes with flood insurance
Photo: Bold Frontiers, CC BY 2.0

Carlton County, Minnesota has a relatively low overall risk from natural hazards in FEMA's National Risk Index. Its risk score is higher than 70% of US counties. It ranks 16th of 87 counties in Minnesota. The costliest hazards here are cold waves, inland flooding and tornadoes. FEMA estimates about $32 million a year in expected losses, or roughly $876 per resident. Since 1972 it has been included in 8 federal disaster or emergency declarations for natural events (6 major disasters). The most recent was in July 2023 (severe storms and flooding). Only 29 homes here carry federal flood insurance. Since 1978, federal flood insurance has paid about $627,000 on 19 claims here.

FEMA National Risk Index December 2025; OpenFEMA declarations to Nov 6, 2026; NFIP records. Updated November 6, 2026.

Top risks in Carlton County

$17.7 million a yearExpected losses. Damaging events about 16 times a year.
  • Insulate pipes in outside walls, crawl spaces and garages.
  • Know how to shut off the main water valve.
$11.4 million a yearExpected losses. Damaging events about once every 2 years.
  • Check the FEMA flood map for your address, and ask the seller or landlord about past flooding.
  • Price a flood policy now. Most new federal policies take 30 days to start.
$694,295 a yearExpected losses. Damaging events about once every 8 years.
  • Pick a shelter spot: a basement, or an inside room on the lowest floor with no windows.
  • Turn on emergency alerts on your phone and keep a weather radio.
HazardRatingScoreExpected loss a year
Cold waveHigh97.0
$18M
Inland floodingLow64.0
$11M
TornadoLow33.5
$694K
Heat waveLow61.3
$677K
LightningModerate65.9
$471K
HailLow46.6
$253K
Strong windLow24.0
$246K
Ice stormLow52.5
$105K
Winter weatherLow47.6
$65K
DroughtLow33.1
$38K
WildfireVery Low41.0
$31K
EarthquakeVery Low1.5
$2K
LandslideVery Low14.6
$65

Scores are percentiles: a score of 90 means higher risk than about 90% of US counties for that hazard. Hazards FEMA does not rate here are left out. Social vulnerability is relatively low and community resilience is very high in FEMA's measures.

Federal disaster history

Recent disasters nationwide ›

Declarations by decade

Federal declarations for natural events that included Carlton County. 2020s bar runs to November 2026.

By type

Flood5
Drought1
Hurricane1
Severe Storm1

Most recent

Jul 19, 2023Severe Storms and FloodingMajor disaster
Sep 5, 2018Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and FloodingMajor disaster
Jul 6, 2012Severe Storms and FloodingMajor disaster
Sep 13, 2005Hurricane Katrina EvacuationEmergency
May 16, 2001Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and TornadoesMajor disaster
Jun 17, 1976DroughtEmergency
Aug 25, 1972Severe Storms & FloodingMajor disaster
Aug 1, 1972Severe Storms & FloodingMajor disaster

Minnesota also had 26 statewide declarations that did not name single counties.

Storm history since 1967

Tornado risk by county ›

The National Weather Service has logged 275 storm reports in Carlton County since 1967, with 0 deaths and 2 injuries and about $42.2 million in reported damage. The strongest on record here was an F2 tornado on July 7, 1970.

9tornadoes
131hail reports, largest 2 inches
108damaging thunderstorm winds
22floods and flash floods

Strongest tornadoes

DateStrengthNearHurt / killed
Jul 7, 1970F2–2 / 0
Jul 13, 1973F1–0 / 0
Jun 12, 1976F1–0 / 0
Jun 21, 1986F1–0 / 0
Jun 21, 1986F1–0 / 0

Most damaging storms

DateTypeNearDamage
Jun 20, 2012Flash FloodEsko$20M
Jun 20, 2012FloodMoose Lake$16M
Jun 20, 2012FloodCarlton$3M
Jun 20, 2012Flash FloodEsko$2M
Jun 26, 2002LightningCloquet$500K
Jul 7, 1970Tornado–$250K

Source: NOAA Storm Events Database, county-based reports through Jul 3, 2026. Tornado records start in 1950, hail and wind in 1955, and floods and other storm types in 1996, so older decades undercount. Damage is in dollars of the year it happened and is often an estimate. Winter storms, heat and hurricanes are logged by forecast zone, not county, so they are not counted here.

Flood insurance in Carlton County

Check your address flood zone ›
0.2%of homes have federal flood insurance (29 policies)
0%of homes in mapped high-risk flood zones are insured
$627,171paid on 19 flood claims since 1978
2012costliest year, with $502,436 paid

National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) records only; private flood policies are not included. Home counts as of Aug 3, 2026. Since 2021 NFIP prices each home separately under Risk Rating 2.0, so your price depends on the building, not the county. Ask an agent for a quote.

Homes in Carlton County

$245,100median home value (Minnesota $329,300, US $332,700)
1975median year homes were built (Minnesota 1979, US 1980)
56%of homes built before 1980, before many modern wind, quake and flood building rules
6%of homes are mobile homes, which are the least safe in tornadoes and high winds

Older homes and mobile homes usually suffer more damage in storms, floods and earthquakes, and can cost more to insure. If you are buying, ask about roof age, foundation bolting and any retrofits. Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2020 to 2024 5-year estimates; 15,896 housing units.

Compare in Minnesota

All 87 ›
Largest countiesOverall riskTop hazard
Hennepin CountyHighInland flooding
Ramsey CountyHighInland flooding
Dakota CountyModerateInland flooding
Anoka CountyModerateInland flooding
Washington CountyModerateInland flooding
St. Louis CountyModerateCold wave
Olmsted CountyModerateInland flooding
Stearns CountyModerateInland flooding

Neighboring counties

CountyOverall riskDeclarations
St. Louis CountyModerate15
Douglas County, WILow8
Pine CountyLow13
Aitkin CountyLow19

Common questions about Carlton County

What is the biggest natural hazard in Carlton County?

Cold wave has the highest expected yearly losses in Carlton County, about $17.7 million a year in FEMA's estimate. Inland flooding is second at $11.4 million.

How many federal disasters has Carlton County had?

Carlton County has been included in 8 federal disaster or emergency declarations for natural events since 1972, including 6 major disasters. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding in July 2023.

Is Carlton County a high-risk place to live?

Its overall rating is Relatively Low, 16th highest of 87 in Minnesota. A county rating covers the whole area. Risk at one address can be much higher or lower, so check the FEMA flood map and ask about the home's history.

Do I need flood insurance in Carlton County?

Standard home insurance does not cover flooding. About 1 in 500 homes in Carlton County has federal flood insurance. Lenders require it in mapped high-risk zones, but many flood claims come from outside those zones.

How many tornadoes has Carlton County had?

NOAA records list 9 tornadoes in Carlton County since 1950. The strongest was an F2 tornado on July 7, 1970. The weather service has also logged 131 hail reports and 22 floods here.

Sources: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025), OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries, and NFIP policy and claims data. Hazard Compass is independent and not affiliated with FEMA. These figures describe the whole county, not a single property, and are not insurance or safety advice. Report a problem.