Carlton County, Minnesota
Natural disaster risk, federal disaster history and flood insurance facts.
Carlton County, Minnesota has a relatively low overall risk from natural hazards in FEMA's National Risk Index. Its risk score is higher than 70% of US counties. It ranks 16th of 87 counties in Minnesota. The costliest hazards here are cold waves, inland flooding and tornadoes. FEMA estimates about $32 million a year in expected losses, or roughly $876 per resident. Since 1972 it has been included in 8 federal disaster or emergency declarations for natural events (6 major disasters). The most recent was in July 2023 (severe storms and flooding). Only 29 homes here carry federal flood insurance. Since 1978, federal flood insurance has paid about $627,000 on 19 claims here.
FEMA National Risk Index December 2025; OpenFEMA declarations to Nov 6, 2026; NFIP records. Updated November 6, 2026.
Top risks in Carlton County
- Insulate pipes in outside walls, crawl spaces and garages.
- Know how to shut off the main water valve.
- Check the FEMA flood map for your address, and ask the seller or landlord about past flooding.
- Price a flood policy now. Most new federal policies take 30 days to start.
- Pick a shelter spot: a basement, or an inside room on the lowest floor with no windows.
- Turn on emergency alerts on your phone and keep a weather radio.
All 18 hazards
What the ratings mean ›| Hazard | Rating | Score | Expected loss a year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cold wave | 97.0 | $18M | ||
| Inland flooding | 64.0 | $11M | ||
| Tornado | 33.5 | $694K | ||
| Heat wave | 61.3 | $677K | ||
| Lightning | 65.9 | $471K | ||
| Hail | 46.6 | $253K | ||
| Strong wind | 24.0 | $246K | ||
| Ice storm | 52.5 | $105K | ||
| Winter weather | 47.6 | $65K | ||
| Drought | 33.1 | $38K | ||
| Wildfire | 41.0 | $31K | ||
| Earthquake | 1.5 | $2K | ||
| Landslide | 14.6 | $65 |
Scores are percentiles: a score of 90 means higher risk than about 90% of US counties for that hazard. Hazards FEMA does not rate here are left out. Social vulnerability is relatively low and community resilience is very high in FEMA's measures.
Federal disaster history
Recent disasters nationwide ›Declarations by decade
Federal declarations for natural events that included Carlton County. 2020s bar runs to November 2026.
By type
Most recent
Minnesota also had 26 statewide declarations that did not name single counties.
Storm history since 1967
Tornado risk by county ›The National Weather Service has logged 275 storm reports in Carlton County since 1967, with 0 deaths and 2 injuries and about $42.2 million in reported damage. The strongest on record here was an F2 tornado on July 7, 1970.
Strongest tornadoes
| Date | Strength | Near | Hurt / killed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 7, 1970 | F2 | – | 2 / 0 |
| Jul 13, 1973 | F1 | – | 0 / 0 |
| Jun 12, 1976 | F1 | – | 0 / 0 |
| Jun 21, 1986 | F1 | – | 0 / 0 |
| Jun 21, 1986 | F1 | – | 0 / 0 |
Most damaging storms
| Date | Type | Near | Damage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 20, 2012 | Flash Flood | Esko | $20M |
| Jun 20, 2012 | Flood | Moose Lake | $16M |
| Jun 20, 2012 | Flood | Carlton | $3M |
| Jun 20, 2012 | Flash Flood | Esko | $2M |
| Jun 26, 2002 | Lightning | Cloquet | $500K |
| Jul 7, 1970 | Tornado | – | $250K |
Source: NOAA Storm Events Database, county-based reports through Jul 3, 2026. Tornado records start in 1950, hail and wind in 1955, and floods and other storm types in 1996, so older decades undercount. Damage is in dollars of the year it happened and is often an estimate. Winter storms, heat and hurricanes are logged by forecast zone, not county, so they are not counted here.
Flood insurance in Carlton County
Check your address flood zone ›National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) records only; private flood policies are not included. Home counts as of Aug 3, 2026. Since 2021 NFIP prices each home separately under Risk Rating 2.0, so your price depends on the building, not the county. Ask an agent for a quote.
Homes in Carlton County
Older homes and mobile homes usually suffer more damage in storms, floods and earthquakes, and can cost more to insure. If you are buying, ask about roof age, foundation bolting and any retrofits. Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2020 to 2024 5-year estimates; 15,896 housing units.
Compare in Minnesota
All 87 ›| Largest counties | Overall risk | Top hazard |
|---|---|---|
| Hennepin County | Inland flooding | |
| Ramsey County | Inland flooding | |
| Dakota County | Inland flooding | |
| Anoka County | Inland flooding | |
| Washington County | Inland flooding | |
| St. Louis County | Cold wave | |
| Olmsted County | Inland flooding | |
| Stearns County | Inland flooding |
Neighboring counties
| County | Overall risk | Declarations |
|---|---|---|
| St. Louis County | 15 | |
| Douglas County, WI | 8 | |
| Pine County | 13 | |
| Aitkin County | 19 |
Common questions about Carlton County
What is the biggest natural hazard in Carlton County?
Cold wave has the highest expected yearly losses in Carlton County, about $17.7 million a year in FEMA's estimate. Inland flooding is second at $11.4 million.
How many federal disasters has Carlton County had?
Carlton County has been included in 8 federal disaster or emergency declarations for natural events since 1972, including 6 major disasters. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding in July 2023.
Is Carlton County a high-risk place to live?
Its overall rating is Relatively Low, 16th highest of 87 in Minnesota. A county rating covers the whole area. Risk at one address can be much higher or lower, so check the FEMA flood map and ask about the home's history.
Do I need flood insurance in Carlton County?
Standard home insurance does not cover flooding. About 1 in 500 homes in Carlton County has federal flood insurance. Lenders require it in mapped high-risk zones, but many flood claims come from outside those zones.
How many tornadoes has Carlton County had?
NOAA records list 9 tornadoes in Carlton County since 1950. The strongest was an F2 tornado on July 7, 1970. The weather service has also logged 131 hail reports and 22 floods here.
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025), OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries, and NFIP policy and claims data. Hazard Compass is independent and not affiliated with FEMA. These figures describe the whole county, not a single property, and are not insurance or safety advice. Report a problem.