Surprise, Arizona: natural disaster risk
How exposed Surprise is to floods, storms and other hazards, from FEMA and NOAA records for Maricopa County.
Surprise is a city of 154,948 people in Maricopa County, Arizona. FEMA's National Risk Index rates Maricopa County very high for natural hazards overall, higher than most of the US. The costliest hazards there are inland flooding, heat wave and wildfire, with about $2.2 billion in expected losses a year across the county. The weather service has logged 2,703 storm reports in the county since 1955, including 73 tornadoes and 666 floods. About 0.6% of homes in the county carry federal flood insurance.
Risk figures are for Maricopa County. FEMA National Risk Index December 2025; NOAA Storm Events; US Census Bureau ACS 2020 to 2024. Updated November 6, 2026.
Top risks in Surprise
Full Maricopa County report ›- Check the FEMA flood map for your address, and ask the seller or landlord about past flooding.
- Price a flood policy now. Most new federal policies take 30 days to start.
- Check that cooling works before summer.
- Know where the nearest cooling center is.
- Clear dry plants and debris within 5 feet of the house.
- Get home insurance quotes early; availability varies by area.
All hazards
| Hazard | Rating | A year |
|---|---|---|
| Inland flooding | $1.1B | |
| Heat wave | $958M | |
| Wildfire | $42M | |
| Earthquake | $31M | |
| Hail | $24M | |
| Strong wind | $9M | |
| Tornado | $5M | |
| Drought | $5M | |
| Lightning | $2M | |
| Winter weather | $47K | |
| Landslide | $28K | |
| Hurricane | $12K |
Homes in Surprise
Older homes and mobile homes usually take more damage in storms, floods and earthquakes. Ask about roof age, flood history and retrofits before you buy or rent.
Strongest tornadoes in Maricopa County
More cities in Maricopa County
Other cities in Arizona
All ›Common questions about Surprise
Is Surprise safe from natural disasters?
Surprise is in Maricopa County, which FEMA's National Risk Index rates very high overall, higher than most of the US. The biggest hazards are inland flooding, heat wave, wildfire. No place is free of risk, so check the flood map and insurance for any home you consider.
What natural disasters happen in Surprise?
By expected yearly losses in Maricopa County, the top hazards are inland flooding (Very High), heat wave (Very High), wildfire (High). Maricopa County has been part of 24 federal disaster or emergency declarations for natural events.
Does Surprise get tornadoes?
Yes. NOAA records list 73 tornadoes in Maricopa County since 1950; the strongest was an F3 tornado on August 4, 1957. FEMA rates tornado risk in the county moderate.
Do I need flood insurance in Surprise?
Standard home insurance does not cover floods. In Maricopa County, about 0.6% of homes have federal flood insurance, and FEMA rates inland flooding risk very high. Check the FEMA flood map for your address and get a quote even outside a high-risk zone.