Modesto, California: natural disaster risk
How exposed Modesto is to floods, storms and other hazards, from FEMA and NOAA records for Stanislaus County.
Modesto is a city of 219,215 people in Stanislaus County, California. FEMA's National Risk Index rates Stanislaus County relatively high for natural hazards overall, higher than most of the US. The costliest hazards there are inland flooding, earthquake and drought, with about $265 million in expected losses a year across the county. The weather service has logged 66 storm reports in the county since 1953, including 13 tornadoes and 21 floods. About 0.4% of homes in the county carry federal flood insurance.
Risk figures are for Stanislaus County. FEMA National Risk Index December 2025; NOAA Storm Events; US Census Bureau ACS 2020 to 2024. Updated November 6, 2026.
Top risks in Modesto
Full Stanislaus County report ›- Check the FEMA flood map for your address, and ask the seller or landlord about past flooding.
- Price a flood policy now. Most new federal policies take 30 days to start.
- Ask whether an older house is bolted to its foundation.
- Consider separate earthquake insurance where risk is high.
- Check local water restrictions.
- Choose drought-tolerant plants.
All hazards
| Hazard | Rating | A year |
|---|---|---|
| Inland flooding | $94M | |
| Earthquake | $85M | |
| Drought | $71M | |
| Heat wave | $8M | |
| Wildfire | $4M | |
| Lightning | $1M | |
| Tornado | $462K | |
| Hail | $298K | |
| Strong wind | $286K | |
| Winter weather | $41K | |
| Landslide | $39K | |
| Volcanic activity | $316 |
Homes in Modesto
Older homes and mobile homes usually take more damage in storms, floods and earthquakes. Ask about roof age, flood history and retrofits before you buy or rent.
Strongest tornadoes in Stanislaus County
More cities in Stanislaus County
Other cities in California
All ›Common questions about Modesto
Is Modesto safe from natural disasters?
Modesto is in Stanislaus County, which FEMA's National Risk Index rates relatively high overall, higher than most of the US. The biggest hazards are inland flooding, earthquake, drought. No place is free of risk, so check the flood map and insurance for any home you consider.
What natural disasters happen in Modesto?
By expected yearly losses in Stanislaus County, the top hazards are inland flooding (High), earthquake (High), drought (Very High). Stanislaus County has been part of 18 federal disaster or emergency declarations for natural events.
Does Modesto get tornadoes?
Yes. NOAA records list 13 tornadoes in Stanislaus County since 1950; the strongest was an F2 tornado on April 27, 1953. FEMA rates tornado risk in the county low.
Do I need flood insurance in Modesto?
Standard home insurance does not cover floods. In Stanislaus County, about 0.4% of homes have federal flood insurance, and FEMA rates inland flooding risk high. Check the FEMA flood map for your address and get a quote even outside a high-risk zone.